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| House Edge Of All Games |
House Edge
The following tables shows the house edge of most casino games. For games
partially of skill perfect play is assumed. See below the table for a definition of
the house edge.
| Game |
Bet/Rules |
House Edge |
Standard Deviation |
| Baccarat |
Banker |
1.06% |
0.93 |
| Baccarat |
Player |
1.24% |
0.95 |
| Baccarat |
Tie |
14.36% |
2.64 |
| Big Six |
$1 |
11.11% |
0.99 |
| Big Six |
$2 |
16.67% |
1.34 |
| Big Six |
$5 |
22.22% |
2.02 |
| Big Six |
$10 |
18.52% |
2.88 |
| Big Six |
$20 |
22.22% |
3.97 |
| Big Six |
Joker/Logo |
24.07% |
5.35 |
| Bonus Six |
No insurance |
10.42% |
5.79 |
| Bonus Six |
With insurance |
23.83% |
6.51 |
Blackjacka |
Atlantic City rules |
0.43% |
1.2 |
Blackjackb |
Las Vegas single deck |
0.18% |
1.2 |
| Caribbean Stud Poker |
5.22% |
2.24 |
| Casino War |
Go to war on ties |
2.88% |
1.05 |
| Casino War |
Surrender on ties |
3.70% |
0.94 |
| Casino War |
Bet on tie |
18.65% |
8.32 |
| Catch a Wave |
0.50% |
d |
| Craps |
Pass/Come |
1.41% |
1.00 |
| Craps |
Don't pass/don't come |
1.36% |
0.99 |
| Craps |
Field (2:1 on 12) |
5.56% |
1.08 |
| Craps |
Field (3:1 on 12) |
2.78% |
1.14 |
| Craps |
Any craps |
11.11% |
2.51 |
| Craps |
Big 6,8 |
9.09% |
1.00 |
| Craps |
Hard 4,10 |
11.11% |
2.51 |
| Craps |
Hard 6,8 |
9.09% |
2.87 |
| Craps |
Place 6,8 |
1.52% |
1.08 |
| Craps |
Place 5,9 |
4.00% |
1.18 |
| Craps |
Place 4,10 |
6.67% |
1.32 |
| Craps |
Place (to lose) 4,10 |
3.03% |
0.69 |
| Craps |
Proposition 2,12 |
13.89% |
5.09 |
| Craps |
Proposition 3,11 |
11.11% |
3.66 |
| Craps |
Proposition 7 |
16.67% |
1.86 |
| Double Down Stud |
2.67% |
2.97 |
| Keno |
25%-29% |
1.30-46.04 |
| Let it Ride |
3.51% |
5.17 |
| Pai Gowc |
1.50% |
d |
| Pai Gow Pokerc |
1.46% |
0.75 |
| Red Dog |
Six decks |
2.80% |
d |
| Roulette (single zero) |
2.70% |
e |
| Roulette (double zero) |
5.26% |
e |
| Sic-Bo |
2.78%-33.33% |
e |
| Slot Machines |
2%-15%f |
8.74g |
| Spanish 21 |
Dealer hits soft 17 |
0.76% |
d |
| Spanish 21 |
Dealer stands on soft 17 |
0.40% |
d |
| Super Fun 21 |
0.94% |
d |
| Three Card Poker |
Pairplus |
2.32% |
2.91 |
| Three Card Poker |
Ante & play |
3.37% |
d |
| Video Poker |
Jacks or better (full pay) |
0.46% |
4.42 |
| Wild Hold 'em Fold 'em |
6.86% |
d |
Notes:
- a
- Atlantic City rules are 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17,
player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting,
one card to split aces, no surrender.
- b
- Las Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17,
player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting,
one card to split aces, no surrender.
- c
- Assuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker.
- d
- Yet to be determined.
- e
- Standard deviation depends on bet made.
- f
- Slot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer
- g
- Slot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high.
House Edge
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the
initial bet. The house edge is not the ratio of money lost to
total money wagered. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the
ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud
poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these
cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the
purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk.
The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the
average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how
much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack
is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose
6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average
wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any
statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life
questions.
The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much
it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However
the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker,
for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette
at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in
Carribean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may
be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house
edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better
to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean
stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.
Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for
the don't pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The
rationale is that if a bet isn't resolved then it should be ignorred. I personally
opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.
Element of Risk
For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of
risk, which I call the "element of risk." This measurement is defined as the average loss
divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet
there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a
difference are listed below.
| Game |
Bet |
House Edge |
Element of Risk |
Blackjack |
Atlantic City rules |
0.43% |
0.38% |
Bonus 6 |
No insurance |
10.42% |
5.41% |
Bonus 6 |
With insurance |
23.83% |
6.42% |
| Caribbean Stud Poker |
5.22% |
2.56% |
| Casino War |
Go to war on ties |
2.88% |
2.68% |
| Double Down Stud |
2.67% |
2.13% |
| Let it Ride |
3.51% |
2.85% |
| Spanish 21 |
Dealer hits soft 17 |
0.76% |
0.65% |
| Spanish 21 |
Dealer stands on soft 17 |
0.40% |
0.30% |
| Three Card Poker |
Ante & play |
3.37% |
2.01% |
| Wild Hold 'em Fold 'em |
6.86% |
3.23% |
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session.
This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
| Number |
Probability |
| 0.25 | 0.1974 |
| 0.50 | 0.3830 |
| 0.75 | 0.5468 |
| 1.00 | 0.6826 |
| 1.25 | 0.7888 |
| 1.50 | 0.8664 |
| 1.75 | 0.9198 |
| 2.00 | 0.9546 |
| 2.25 | 0.9756 |
| 2.50 | 0.9876 |
| 2.75 | 0.9940 |
| 3.00 | 0.9974 |
| 3.25 | 0.9988 |
| 3.50 | 0.9996 |
| 3.75 | 0.9998 |
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book. There is also a good definition of the term and examples here.
Hold
Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.
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